UPDATE 1/15/08 3:19pm: I found the rules for the RNC. Two corrections to my post.

This is after the Standing Committee on Rules determines by a majority vote that the state or state party violated the rules.

On pages 12 & 13, Rule No. 16 (Enforcement of Rules), section (a), paragraphs (1) and (2):

There appears to be two choices. The delegates can be reduced by 50% (paragraph 1) or by 90% (paragraph 2).

On page 14, Rule No. 16 (Enforcement of Rules), section (e), paragraph (2) [Emphasis mine]:

After the Republican National Committee members are excluded from being part of the offending state's delegation to the national convention, the state party shall determine which of the state's remaining delegates (and corresponding alternate delegates) are entitled to serve as the state's reduced delegation to the national convention.

In other words, the leadership of each state's GOP executive committee would then make that call. So, I had it right. The only difference is that is will be decided in each state, rather than at the convention by the entire RNC executive committee. In the below hypothetical, this would mean that the Florida GOP's executive leadership would make the call.

While I'm not able to divulge the names of my sources or my connection to those individuals, I have learned some interesting information about the RNC. The fate of some GOP candidates may rest completely on a discussion which takes place this week among the RNC Executive Committee and the delegates for the GOP National Convention.

There is a lot of discussion about a brokered convention. It could be a real possibility, with multiple possible scenarios unfolding.

Many states have rebelled against the RNC rules and scheduled their primary elections earlier this year - Florida being one of them. The committee members warned them months ago not to do this as they may lose their delegates at the national convention. I was told last night that the final decision will be made this week. While the Republican National Committee voted 121-9 to impose the penalties and remove half of their delegates, Chairman Mike Duncan does have the power to overrule that decision. He has indicated he will not do that. There is still a possibility that all or none of them will count, and some states have indicated they bring litigation against the RNC if only half of their delegates are counted, regardless.

Which states are we talking about and how will they matter?

Florida - 114 delegates

Michigan - 60 delegates

Wyoming - 28 delegates

South Carolina - 47 delegates

New Hampshire - 24 delegates

CNN has a link with all of the delegates assigned to each state.

Rudy Giuliani's entire strategy has been Florida, California and other states with large delegate numbers. However, even with the scenario of only half the delegate numbers counted, and knowing Rudy won't grab all of the delegates, the most he can hope for could be around 30+. Romney's strategy has been New Hampshire, Florida, Wyoming and Michigan. Huckabee, McCain and Thompson are all banking on South Carolina. Ron Paul is campaigning this week in Nevada. Do you think any of the candidates are concerned about their risky strategies?

And here is the real interesting twist, as it was explained to me yesterday from my sources. If the RNC executive committee maintains their vote to suspend half the delegates of the aforementioned states, the executive committee leadership also gets to determine which of those delegates get counted at the actual convention. If this proves true, that throws a big kink into things.

So let's look at this scenario hypothetically. Let's say that Giuliani wins Florida. He gets 64 of the 114 delegates. Thompson gets 30 delegates and McCain gets 20 delegates. If the RNC executive committee decides only half of those delegates get counted, the executive committee leadership could also decide that the delegates for Thompson and McCain get counted and only 7 of Giuliani's delegates would be included. A total of 57 delegates counted.

This is the jeopardy that these states created when they decided to go against the RNC rules. It could really all come down to the decision later this week by the committee and how each candidate does in various states. It could go beyond Super Tuesday. It could go all the way to the March-May primaries. It could come down to the convention. Sounds exciting, doesn't it? Never a dull moment.

I will try to follow up with my sources later this week to see what the outcome of the meeting is.

UPDATE: Jay Cost at RealClearPolitics.com has some other interesting twists which could lead to a brokered GOP convention.